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Canadian Equities
Positive but adjust expectations.
Where commodities go, the S&P/TSX usually follows
The S&P/TSX Composite Index has often been referred to as a commodity-linked index given that two of its largest sectors are materials and energy. As the global economy continues to recover from COVID-19 and government-forced lockdowns, the demand for commodities is expected to continue increasing. The increased demand should bode well for S&P/TSX returns.
S&P/TSX Composite Index vs CRB Commodity Index
2000 – current
Source: Manulife Investment Management, Bloomberg, as of September 30, 2021.
Elevated oil prices are likely to lead to strong S&P/TSX earnings.
Historically, earnings growth for the TSX has correlated with the change in the price of WTI YOY. We’ve seen a recovery in oil prices from negative-US$37/bbl in April 2020 to US$75bbl by the end of September 2021. Using US$70/bbl as a conservative average target price, we believe the global economic recovery will lead to higher crude demand and prices, contributing to strong S&P/TSX earnings growth into 2022.
Change in oil price (YOY) vs Change in S&P/TSX earnings per share lagged 3 months (YOY)
1996 to March 2022 (Estimated)
Source: Manulife Investment Management, Bloomberg, as of September 30, 2021.
After a weak September, seasonality is now in your favour
September has historically been the weakest month for the S&P/TSX Price Index in terms of odds of a positive return. However, the fall and winter months have been strong months of the year with much higher probability of positive returns.
S&P/TSX Price Index, odds of positive monthly return
(1950–current)
Source: Capital Markets Strategy, Bloomberg. As of August 31, 2021
Dividend growers outperform
Using Bloomberg, our team screened the S&P/TSX Composite Index for companies with a five-year dividend growth rate of at least 10% and a payout ratio of no more than 70%. This screen was back tested and rebalanced on a quarterly basis, going back 10 years, to September 30, 2020. The model has a 10-year annualized performance of 7.65%, while the S&P/TSX Composite Index returned 4.92% over the same period. These results assume all dividends are paid out and not reinvested.
Capital Markets Strategy dividend growth model vs S&P /TSX Composite Index
Cumulative Return (2011–2021)
Source: Manulife Investment Management, Bloomberg, as of September 30, 2021
Manulife Investment Management’s sample strategy
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Canadian equities • Favour a selective approach to Canadian equities. • Consider diversifying business risks, not just sectors.
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US Equities • Look for opportunities to take advantage of market dislocations. • Consider dollar‑cost averaging into equities. |
International developed market equities • Consider less constrained strategies that can seek out opportunities wherever they may present themselves. |
Emerging Market equities Opportunities may exist within the emerging markets, specifically in the Asia ex‑Japan region. |
Fixed Income • Favour flexible strategies that can seize opportunities wherever they may be. •Consider using different types of bonds for different objectives, whether it is downside protection or enhanced yield. •Be mindful of the potential currency impact on global allocations.
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Source: Manulife Investment Management as of September 30, 2021. For illustration purposes only. Performance histories are not indicative of future returns. The information in this document does not replace or supersede KYC (know your client) suitability, needs analysis, or any other regulatory requirements. Clients should seek the advice of professionals before making any investment decisions.